What the Intel Score means

Every read FDI presents is built from inputs: market information, model output, and the evidence those rest on. Some reads are built on complete, consistent, well-evidenced inputs. Others are built on thinner or more conflicting ones. The Intel Score describes which of those situations you are looking at.

A higher number means stronger support for the construction of that read — how well evidenced the way it was built is. It says nothing directly about how the game will turn out.

The easiest mistake is to read the number as a chance of something. It is none of these:

• a win probability;
• a cover probability;
• the chance a player prop goes over or under;
• an expected value or expected return;
• a certainty, or a promise about any result.

An 87 does not mean an 87% chance of anything. It means the evidence behind that read is strong relative to the scale FDI uses — nothing more.

An Intel Score describes how a read was built, not whether FDI holds a position on the game. It is not a win, cover, or hit probability, and not an expected return.

An Intel Score is published only where an eligible read exists and the evidence behind it can be fully checked. When that is not the case, the game simply has no score. Nothing is estimated in its place, and an absent score is not a low one — it is an honest statement that there is nothing qualified to score.

That is deliberate. A number shown on every game would look more complete and be less true.

Each checkpoint publishes its own Intel Score from the evidence available at that time. Published scores are never edited, and a difference between checkpoints is a difference in the evidence available, not a judgment about the game.

There are no tiers, grades or cut-offs attached to the number. A score is a score; FDI does not sort games into good and bad on your behalf.